[ART.] A PERFECT WORLD: Confirmation Bias
Article written by María Mulattieri, Consultant at Headway Executive Search
Leaders, strategic figures, and most members of an organization face decision-making on a daily basis.
Are we capable of making decisions that go against our beliefs or assumptions? And what if the decision we must make does not align with the strategy we had outlined, or with what we want to happen?
Leon Festinger defined cognitive dissonance as an internal contradiction between thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes that generates psychological discomfort, which drives the individual to restore coherence through different mechanisms.
A common mechanism to reduce this dissonance is confirmation bias, which, according to the APA Dictionary of Psychology, is defined as the “tendency to favor information that confirms existing beliefs or hypotheses, regardless of whether the information is true or not” (American Psychological Association, n.d.). That is, we tend to seek out information or interpret events that confirm our beliefs, maximizing the value of that which supports our prior ideas while minimizing—or outright ignoring—that which contradicts them. This mechanism responds more to the need to validate our beliefs than to the search for an alternative narrative or an objective vision. Confirmation bias can lead us to build the illusion that we live in a perfect world where we are always right or where only the things we expect, want, or believe in—consciously or not—happen (or should happen).
In an organizational or strategic leadership context, if this bias is not recognized or managed, it can compromise the quality of decisions, limit innovation, and reinforce internal narratives that do not match the reality of the environment. Anecdotally, an informal and simple exercise that my manager implemented to avoid confirmation bias and preserve rigor in all our processes and analyses was to establish the humble yet powerful premise: “we start from the assumption that we know nothing.” Far from being a declaration of ignorance, this premise serves as a constant reminder that every conclusion, decision, or proposal we develop must be backed by solid data and a meticulous process, avoiding selective interpretation—focusing only on what fits and ignoring what does not. This approach not only maintains the quality of our work but also cultivates a curious, professional, and critical attitude toward all our processes.
“we start from the assumption that we know nothing”
In the same way, in leadership it means resisting the temptation to justify wrong decisions, questioning one’s own beliefs, accepting the discomfort of not being right, and prioritizing alignment with objective reality. In the professional sphere, recognizing the influence of these biases and cultivating a critical and open mindset allows space for reality as it is—even when it challenges our convictions or expectations.
